Match report →
Benfica – Gil Vicente3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Benfica
1.87
Total xG
2.50
Gil Vicente
0.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Benfica | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.49x league average) | +1.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −1.16 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −1.13 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Santiago García González on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joelson Fernandes on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.8 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Benfica averaged 8.8 shots on target with 65.8% possession in recent matches
- Form gap: Benfica boast a perfect 5-match winning streak while Gil Vicente's attack is stalling
- Mathematical models predict a strong 66% probability for a Benfica home win
Risks
- Gil Vicente are missing key players Santiago García González and Joelson Fernandes from the starting lineup
- Gil Vicente suffer from defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Benfica66%
Draw24%
Gil Vicente11%
Double chance
Benfica or draw89%
Gil Vicente or draw34%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
Lineups
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · Gil Vicente 5-4-1
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
Substitutes
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 1 A. Trubin
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 16 M. Silva
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 17 S. Bermejo Lillo
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 99 M. Kaba
- 22 M. Torres Teixeira
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →