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Liga Portugal

Benfica - Gil Vicente

09/13/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Benfica
1.9
Total xG
2.5
Gil Vicente
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
BENGV

Benfica

Attack strength (2.49x league average)
+1.70
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-1.13
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.42
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.22
Strong home record (2.8 vs 2.3 goals/match)

Gil Vicente

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-1.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Santiago GarcĂ­a GonzĂĄlez on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Joelson Fernandes on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)

  • 3
    Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 4
    Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

24%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Benfica averaged 8.8 shots on target with 65.8% possession in recent matches
  • Form gap: Benfica boast a perfect 5-match winning streak while Gil Vicente's attack is stalling
  • Mathematical models predict a strong 66% probability for a Benfica home win
Risk Factors
  • Gil Vicente are missing key players Santiago GarcĂ­a GonzĂĄlez and Joelson Fernandes from the starting lineup
  • Gil Vicente suffer from defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away game
Overview

Benfica host Gil Vicente at the EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Liga Portugal match on September 13, 2026, 5:00 PM

Top-tier team challenges the mid-table side

Benfica sit in 2nd place with 13 points

Gil Vicente are in 8th place with 7 points

The hosts aim to keep pressure on league leaders Porto

Form

Benfica enter the match in perfect form

Hosts' form: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Five wins from their last five matches

Gil Vicente struggle with inconsistent performances

Guests' form: LWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recent match ended in a defeat against Academico Viseu

Statistics

Benfica boast an extremely strong attack

Seasonal average of 2.18 goals scored per game

Defensively, the hosts concede only 0.74 goals per match

Gil Vicente average 1.38 goals per game this season

The guests concede an average of 1.5 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

Clear historical advantage for the hosts

Four head-to-head matches in recent years resulted in four wins for Benfica

Goal record stands at 12 to 3 in favor of the Eagles

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Benfica

Key Players

Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica's attack with 6 goals this season

Gianluca Prestianni shines with 4 goals and 2 assists

HĂ©ctor HernĂĄndez has scored 2 goals for Gil Vicente this season

Goalkeepers

Samuel Soares starts in goal for Benfica with an average rating of 6.82

LucĂŁo guards the net for the visitors with a rating of 6.66

Benfica recorded 14 clean sheets in their season stats

Gil Vicente kept 12 clean sheets so far

Influences

Strong home record for Benfica with an average of 2.16 goals scored at home

Historically, matches at this venue average 4.6 total goals per game

Home advantage is amplified at the EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

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