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Famalicão – Sporting CP1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Famalicão
0.95
Total xG
2.45
Sporting CP
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Famalicão | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.80 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.57 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Rodrigo Zalazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form gap: While Famalicão are winless Sporting CP arrive with five consecutive victories
- Tactical dominance: Sporting CP averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches while Famalicão managed only 2.8
- Attacking threat: Sporting's Luis Suárez is in exceptional form with four league goals already
Risks
- Low offensive efficiency for Famalicão with an average of only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Sporting CP with only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Famalicão's 8 days
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Famalicão22%
Draw29%
Sporting CP49%
Double chance
Famalicão or draw51%
Sporting CP or draw78%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
11%
0:0
10%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sporting CP: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Famalicão: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Famalicão: scored only after the break in 5 of 11 games
- Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Famalicão 4-2-3-1 · Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 21 T. Szücs
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 6 Z. Debast
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
Substitutes
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 18 R. Beney
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 33 P. Salas
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 5 L. Meyer
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 4 S. Andersen
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 28 J. Derry
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