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Liga Portugal

Famalicão - Sporting CP

09/13/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Famalicão
0.9
Total xG
2.5
Sporting CP
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

10%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
FAMSC

Famalicão

Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-0.80
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.57
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.10

Sporting CP

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.55
Attack strength (1.32x league average)
-0.40
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.09
Rodrigo Zalazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Famalicão: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 5
    Famalicão: scored only after the break in 5 of 11 games

  • 6
    Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

29%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: While Famalicão are winless Sporting CP arrive with five consecutive victories
  • Tactical dominance: Sporting CP averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches while Famalicão managed only 2.8
  • Attacking threat: Sporting's Luis Suárez is in exceptional form with four league goals already
Risk Factors
  • Low offensive efficiency for Famalicão with an average of only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Sporting CP with only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Famalicão's 8 days
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Famalicão host Sporting CP at the Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

Liga Portugal match on September 13, 2026, 8:30 PM

15th-placed Famalicão challenge undefeated 3rd-placed Sporting CP

The visitors enter the match as clear favorites

Form

Famalicão are still searching for their first league win with a form of DLLDD

Sporting CP arrive with a perfect run of five consecutive wins (WWWWW)

The hosts recently secured a draw while the visitors remain on a winning streak

Statistics

Famalicão's goal production has stalled with an average of 1.0 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.4

Sporting CP are flying offensively scoring 3.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 2.5

The visitors' defense has been highly stable this season conceding just 0.71 goals per game

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record shows clear dominance for Sporting CP with four wins in the last four matches

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for Sporting CP on February 15, 2026

Famalicão have not won any of the recent direct duels

Key Players

For Famalicão the hopes rest on attacker Georgios Koutsias who has scored three goals this season

Defender Finn van Breemen is also key with an average rating of 6.99

Sporting CP rely on striker Luis Suárez with four goals and one assist

Rodrigo Zalazar (1 goal and 1 assist) is not in the starting XI

Goalkeepers

Lazar Carević starts in goal for Famalicão with an average rating of 6.42

Sporting CP's goal is guarded by Rui Silva who holds a rating of 6.38 this season

Both goalkeepers have played all five league matches so far

Influences

Home advantage could play a role for Famalicão who historically defend very well at home

The stadium averages 2.0 goals per match

The probability for both teams to score is historically 60% at this venue

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