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Liga Portugal

Arouca - Santa Clara

09/13/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Arouca
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Santa Clara
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AROSC

Arouca

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.51
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02

Santa Clara

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.56
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.47
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (11/13 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Santa Clara: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)

  • 3
    Santa Clara: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Limited attacking threat: According to data only 25% of Santa Clara's seasonal goal production is currently available
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 39% win probability in favor of Santa Clara
  • Solid defense: Undefeated Santa Clara have impressed this season with 10 clean sheets overall
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerabilities: Arouca concede a high average of 1.88 goals per game this season
  • Close matchup: The mathematical model calculates a 30% probability for a draw
  • Limited data on duel statistics from recent matches
Overview

Arouca host Santa Clara in the Liga Portugal on September 13, 2026, 6:00 PM

The match will be played at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Fifth-placed Arouca with 10 points face fourth-placed Santa Clara with 11 points

Form

Arouca enter with a form of WWLWD including 3 wins and 1 draw

Santa Clara remain undefeated with a form of DWWDW including 3 wins and 2 draws

Both sides show a positive trend in their recent league games

Statistics

Arouca score an average of 1.38 goals and concede 1.88 goals per game

Santa Clara average 0.94 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

At home Arouca concede an average of 1.5 goals per match

Head-to-Head

The direct history consists of 4 head-to-head matches

Each team has recorded 1 win along with 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on May 2, 2026

Key Players

Iván Barbero leads Arouca with 3 goals this season

Naïs Djouahra has been creative for the hosts with 3 assists

Gonçalo Paciência stands out for Santa Clara with 4 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Ignacio de Arruabarrena guards the home goal with a strong rating of 7.54

Lucas França starts in goal for the visitors with a rating of 6.92

Santa Clara have recorded 10 clean sheets this season compared to 7 for Arouca

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Venue statistics show an average of 3.2 goals per game at this stadium

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played here

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