Match report →
Arouca – Santa Clara1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Arouca
1.17
Total xG
2.50
Santa Clara
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arouca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.51 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited attacking threat: According to data only 25% of Santa Clara's seasonal goal production is currently available
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 39% win probability in favor of Santa Clara
- Solid defense: Undefeated Santa Clara have impressed this season with 10 clean sheets overall
Risks
- Defensive vulnerabilities: Arouca concede a high average of 1.88 goals per game this season
- Close matchup: The mathematical model calculates a 30% probability for a draw
- Limited data on duel statistics from recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Arouca31%
Draw30%
Santa Clara39%
Double chance
Arouca or draw61%
Santa Clara or draw69%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (11/13 games, last 30)
- Santa Clara: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)
- Santa Clara: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Arouca 4-2-3-1 · Santa Clara 4-3-3
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
Substitutes
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 20 G. Rukavina
- 5 B. Popović
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 71 M. da Silva Duarte
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 3 H. da Silva
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 25 F. Medeiros Silva
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