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Liga Portugal

Academico Viseu - Vitória Guimarães

09/12/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Academico Viseu
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Vitória Guimarães
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
AVVG

Academico Viseu

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.37
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.31
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)

Vitória Guimarães

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Miguel Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória Guimarães: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

30%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The model predicts a slight advantage for the visitors with an away win probability of 41%
  • Vitória Guimarães averaged 19.2 total shots per match in recent games
  • Academico Viseu is defensively more stable away with 0.8 goals conceded compared to their overall average of 1.6 goals conceded
Risk Factors
  • Miguel Nogueira is missing for the visitors, leaving only 63% of the usual starting XI strength available
  • Vitória Guimarães concedes a high average of 2.91 goals per away game
  • Academico Viseu averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Academico Viseu hosts Vitória Guimarães

Match on September 12, 2026, 8:30 PM

Matchup between the 10th and 12th placed teams in Liga Portugal

Only one point separates both teams in the standings

Form

Academico Viseu has a form of DLDLW

The hosts recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Vitória Guimarães arrives with a form of LLWLD

The visitors have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

Academico Viseu averages 1.0 goals scored per match

The hosts concede an average of 1.6 goals per game

Vitória Guimarães averages 1.15 goals scored per match

The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per game

Key Players

André Clóvis leads the attack with 2 goals this season

João Guilherme shines with an average rating of 7.16

Soufiane Messeguem already scored 1 goal this season for the hosts

Gustavo Silva averages a rating of 7.39 for the visitors

Samu scored 1 goal in midfield so far this season

Tony Strata has already contributed 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Ewerton guards the goal for Academico Viseu with an average rating of 7.26

The hosts achieved 1 clean sheet so far

Oliwier Zych is in goal for Vitória Guimarães with a rating of 6.69

The visitors have kept a total of 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

The venue statistics show an average of 2.0 goals per game

In previous home matches, there were no games where both teams scored

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