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Academico Viseu – Vitória Guimarães2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Academico Viseu
1.13
Total xG
2.53
Vitória Guimarães
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Academico Viseu | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.37 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Miguel Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The model predicts a slight advantage for the visitors with an away win probability of 41%
- Vitória Guimarães averaged 19.2 total shots per match in recent games
- Academico Viseu is defensively more stable away with 0.8 goals conceded compared to their overall average of 1.6 goals conceded
Risks
- Miguel Nogueira is missing for the visitors, leaving only 63% of the usual starting XI strength available
- Vitória Guimarães concedes a high average of 2.91 goals per away game
- Academico Viseu averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Academico Viseu29%
Draw30%
Vitória Guimarães41%
Double chance
Academico Viseu or draw59%
Vitória Guimarães or draw71%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória Guimarães: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Academico Viseu 4-1-4-1 · Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 47 L. Gohi
- 33 A. Silva Filho
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 23 T. Strata
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 13 João Mendes
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 44 L. Doucet
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 7 O. Camara
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Substitutes
- 17 V. Fernández Estrada
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 3 M. Brau Blanquez
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 1 M. Lavín Rodríguez
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 21 T. Borevković
- 19 V. Andersson
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 22 J. Castillo Reyes
- 24 A. Ndoye
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
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