Match report →
Moreirense – Marítimo3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Moreirense
1.03
Total xG
2.28
Marítimo
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Moreirense | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.69 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.39 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 13% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form and efficiency: Marítimo scores consistently at 1.2 goals per match, while Moreirense's recent goal production averaged only 0.8 goals
- Model prediction: The mathematical model favors Marítimo with a 40% probability of an away win compared to 29% for a home win
- Tactical setup: Both teams have played counter-oriented styles recently, with Marítimo averaging 3.4 shots on target compared to Moreirense's 2.4
Risks
- Squad impact: Only 63% of Moreirense's usual starting lineup strength is available
- Missing history: Limited data on head-to-head matches makes historical comparison difficult
- Low attacking output: Moreirense averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Moreirense29%
Draw32%
Marítimo39%
Double chance
Moreirense or draw61%
Marítimo or draw71%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Moreirense: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Moreirense: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 12 games)
Lineups
Moreirense 4-2-3-1 · Marítimo 4-3-3
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 79 L. Vonić
Marítimo
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 18 V. Danilović
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
Substitutes
- 9 A. Duville-Parsemain
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 25 A. Cunha Almeida
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 12 F. Barbosa
- 21 I. Alani
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 12 M. Bassouamina
- 22 G. Szalai
- 5 N. Lopes
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 15 T. Tavares
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 8 M. Dominguez
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