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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Marítimo

09/14/2026, 07:15 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Moreirense
1.0
Total xG
2.3
Marítimo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
MORMAR

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.69
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.09
Full strength squad available

Marítimo

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.39
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
13% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Moreirense: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Moreirense: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

32%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Form and efficiency: Marítimo scores consistently at 1.2 goals per match, while Moreirense's recent goal production averaged only 0.8 goals
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model favors Marítimo with a 40% probability of an away win compared to 29% for a home win
  • Tactical setup: Both teams have played counter-oriented styles recently, with Marítimo averaging 3.4 shots on target compared to Moreirense's 2.4
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Only 63% of Moreirense's usual starting lineup strength is available
  • Missing history: Limited data on head-to-head matches makes historical comparison difficult
  • Low attacking output: Moreirense averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Moreirense (15th place, 4 points) host Marítimo (10th place, 7 points) at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Liga Portugal match on September 14, 2026, 8:15 PM

Moreirense aim to escape the relegation zone while Marítimo look to consolidate their mid-table position

Form

Moreirense show inconsistent form with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Form code: DLWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Marítimo recently recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and suffered 2 consecutive losses

Form code: WWDLL

Statistics

Moreirense scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.44 goals per match this season

In home games, Moreirense averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded

Marítimo scored an average of 1.2 goals per match and conceded 1.6 goals this season

Away from home, Marítimo's defense is more stable, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game

Key Players

Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto is one of the hosts' top performers with a rating of 6.84

Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues and Nile John have each scored 1 goal this season

For the visitors, Martín Tejón stands out with 1 goal, 1 assist, and an average rating of 7.11

Additionally, Adrián Butzke Benavides (1 goal, rating 6.97) and Raphael Guzzo (1 goal, rating 6.86) are key contributors

Goalkeepers

André Ferreira played 5 times in goal this season and has an average rating of 6.65

The home team has already recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Alfonso Pastor guarded Marítimo's goal in 5 matches as well, with a rating of 6.75

The visitors have managed to secure 1 clean sheet so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

The venue has seen an average of 2.8 goals per match in recent games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of these games while both teams scored in 40% of them

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