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Liga Portugal

Casa Pia - Porto

09/12/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Casa Pia
0.9
Total xG
2.5
Porto
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

9%

0:3

6%

2:1

5%
What influences the xG?
CPPOR

Casa Pia

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.70
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.27
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap)
-0.16

Porto

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)

  • 2
    Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Casa Pia: 2.8 cards per game (28 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

28%

Away Win

53%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

47%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • League form gap: Porto won all 5 matches, while Casa Pia are still without a win
  • Tactical dominance: Porto averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Casa Pia's 2.2
  • Offensive drought for Casa Pia: The hosts averaged 0.0 goals in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Porto: Only 17% of goal production is available
  • Heavy schedule for Porto: Only 4 days of rest since the last match against Manchester City
  • Weak home offense for Casa Pia: Average of only 0.9 goals scored per home game this season
Overview

Casa Pia host Porto at the Estádio Pina Manique

Liga Portugal match on September 12, 2026, 5:00 PM

Clash between the bottom team (18th place, 1 point) and the league leaders (1st place, 15 points)

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Porto with a 53% probability

Form

Casa Pia form: LLLLD

Porto form: WWWWL

Casa Pia are still searching for their first win after 4 losses and 1 draw

Porto lost their last match against Manchester City but won 4 consecutive league matches prior

Statistics

Casa Pia score an average of 0.91 goals per game and concede 1.68 goals

Porto average a strong 1.94 goals scored and concede just 0.53 goals

Casa Pia have not scored a single goal in the league this season

Porto have kept 21 clean sheets overall

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Porto won 3 times, while Casa Pia won 1 match

The last encounter on February 2, 2026, ended in a 2-1 home victory for Casa Pia

The overall goal difference is 8-2 in favor of Porto

Key Players

Benjamin Pauwels scored 1 goal in 2 matches for Casa Pia

Selvi Clua stabilizes the hosts' midfield with an average rating of 6.88

David Sousa is a key pillar in Casa Pia's defense with an average rating of 7.12

Gabri Veiga stands out for Porto with 3 goals and 2 assists this season

William Gomes also contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

Pepê provides offensive threat with 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Ivan Mandić played one match for Casa Pia, holding a rating of 8.03

Diogo Costa guarded Porto's goal in 5 matches, with a rating of 6.99

Casa Pia kept 7 clean sheets overall, while Porto recorded 21 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

The historical home record at the Estádio Pina Manique shows an average of 2.4 goals per game

Casa Pia scored an average of only 0.9 goals at home

Porto conceded an average of just 0.71 goals away from home this season

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