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Casa Pia – Porto1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Casa Pia
0.89
Total xG
2.50
Porto
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Casa Pia | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (0 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- League form gap: Porto won all 5 matches, while Casa Pia are still without a win
- Tactical dominance: Porto averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Casa Pia's 2.2
- Offensive drought for Casa Pia: The hosts averaged 0.0 goals in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Critical squad impact for Porto: Only 17% of goal production is available
- Heavy schedule for Porto: Only 4 days of rest since the last match against Manchester City
- Weak home offense for Casa Pia: Average of only 0.9 goals scored per home game this season
All probabilities
Result
Casa Pia19%
Draw28%
Porto53%
Double chance
Casa Pia or draw47%
Porto or draw81%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
11%
1:2
9%
0:3
6%
2:1
5%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Casa Pia: 2.8 cards per game (28 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1 · Porto 4-3-3
Casa Pia
- 95 I. Mandić
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 80 L. Ofori
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 74 F. Moura
- 16 I. Hwang
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Substitutes
- 20 A. Jatta
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 59 A. Dafe
- 21 A. Zouin
- 17 E. Maurin
- 42 S. Fofana
- 21 D. Prpić
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 50 J. Oliveira Afonso
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 58 T. Silva
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