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Liga Portugal

Sporting Braga - Estoril

09/14/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sporting Braga
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Estoril
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SBEST

Sporting Braga

Attack strength (1.51x league average)
+0.65
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1.5 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap)
+0.12
Fran Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Vítor Carvalho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Mario Dorgeles on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Estoril

Attack weakness (0.38x league average)
-1.22
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.84
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.33
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap)
-0.14
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Yanis Begraoui: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 4
    Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical signal: The model forecasts a home win probability of 59%
  • Possession dominance: Sporting Braga controlled an average of 58.4% possession in recent matches
  • Away defensive weakness: Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals in away matches this season
Risk Factors
  • Squad gap in attack: Fran Navarro, Vítor Carvalho, and Mario Dorgeles are not in the lineup, leaving only 80% of the team's goal threat available
  • Reduced lineup strength: Estoril starting XI features only 67% of their usual team strength according to the dataset
  • Stuttering offensive efficiency: Braga's recent goal average of 1.5 goals per game is below their season average of 1.9
Overview

Sporting Braga (8th place, 7 points) host Estoril (17th place, 2 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Liga Portugal match on September 14, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home side goes into the match as clear favorites

Form

Sporting Braga has a form of WDWWL (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Estoril shows a form of DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Braga recently lost 1-2 away to Estrela Amadora

Estoril recorded a 0-0 draw against Arouca in their last outing

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Braga averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per season

At home, Braga scored an average of 1.89 goals per match

Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals away from home while scoring 1.56

Estoril managed to keep only 3 clean sheets in away games this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in the database

The record is balanced with 1 win each and 2 draws

Braga holds a narrow 5-4 goal difference advantage

The last meeting on May 3, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Pau Víctor has scored 10 goals and provided 4 assists in 32 appearances

Gabri Martínez registered 1 goal and 3 assists so far this season

Yanis Begraoui has scored 2 goals in 5 games for Estoril

Goalkeepers

Joel Robles made 5 season appearances for Estoril with an average rating of 6.74

Sporting Braga kept a total of 12 clean sheets overall this season

Estoril recorded 5 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

The game will be played on grass at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Braga concedes an average of only 1.00 goals per game in their home stadium

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match

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