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Sporting Braga – Estoril1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sporting Braga
1.90
Total xG
2.80
Estoril
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting Braga | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.38x league average) | −1.22 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.84 | |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.33 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Fran Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vítor Carvalho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mario Dorgeles on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical signal: The model forecasts a home win probability of 59%
- Possession dominance: Sporting Braga controlled an average of 58.4% possession in recent matches
- Away defensive weakness: Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals in away matches this season
Risks
- Squad gap in attack: Fran Navarro, Vítor Carvalho, and Mario Dorgeles are not in the lineup, leaving only 80% of the team's goal threat available
- Reduced lineup strength: Estoril starting XI features only 67% of their usual team strength according to the dataset
- Stuttering offensive efficiency: Braga's recent goal average of 1.5 goals per game is below their season average of 1.9
All probabilities
Result
Sporting Braga59%
Draw25%
Estoril16%
Double chance
Sporting Braga or draw84%
Estoril or draw41%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Yanis Begraoui: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Sporting Braga 3-4-3 · Estoril 4-2-3-1
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 37 L. Barišić
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 17 J. Milošević
- 10 Pau Victor
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 21 R. Jurišić
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 44 M. Robin
- 98 F. Garcia Andrade
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 11 N. Omerović
- 14 Y. Begraoui
Substitutes
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 21 R. Horta
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 9 A. Camblan
- 35 S. Amissah
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 99 R. Guitane
- 16 M. Turk
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 43 F. Lowe
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