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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - Estrela Amadora

09/14/2026, 05:45 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Estrela Amadora
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
RAEA

Rio Ave

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average)
-0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap)
-0.11
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
44% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Estrela Amadora

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap)
+0.07
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estrela Amadora: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 2
    Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 3
    Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

30%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Only 29% of Estrela Amadora's seasonal goal production is active with this starting lineup
  • Clear form gap: Estrela Amadora is unbeaten in 5 matches (DDWDW), whereas Rio Ave lost 4 of their last 5 (LLWLL)
  • Estrela Amadora averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, while Rio Ave managed only 1.8
Risk Factors
  • Estrela Amadora has a shorter recovery time with only 4 days since their last match
  • The visitors struggle defensively on the road, conceding 2.13 goals per away game
  • Historical head-to-head records favor Rio Ave, who won 3 of the last 4 encounters
Overview

Rio Ave host Estrela Amadora

Liga Portugal match on September 14, 2026, 6:45 PM

Rio Ave sit in 16th place with 3 points

Estrela Amadora occupy 6th place with 9 points

A clash between relegation-threatened hosts and high-flying visitors

Form

Rio Ave's form is LLWLL

They have suffered two consecutive defeats

Estrela Amadora remain unbeaten with DDWDW form

The visitors travel after a recent victory

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Rio Ave score an average of 1.03 goals and concede 1.68 per game

Estrela Amadora score 1.12 goals and concede 1.65 on average

The visitors struggle away from home, conceding 2.13 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Rio Ave won 3 of these encounters

Estrela Amadora secured 1 victory

The last direct match ended 2-1 in favor of Rio Ave

Key Players

Jalen Blesa is a key attacker for Rio Ave with an average rating of 7.05

Leandro Antonetti leads Estrela Amadora with 4 goals this season

Ianis Stoica has also been highly effective with 3 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Ennio Van Der Gouw guards the goal for Rio Ave with a 6.87 rating

LĂ©o Linck is in goal for Estrela Amadora, averaging a 6.67 rating

Rio Ave kept 6 clean sheets this season, while Estrela Amadora recorded 8

Influences

The match will be played on grass at EstĂĄdio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game

No weather data is available for this match

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