Match report →
Rio Ave – Estrela Amadora3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Rio Ave
1.03
Total xG
2.45
Estrela Amadora
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rio Ave | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| 44% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 29% of Estrela Amadora's seasonal goal production is active with this starting lineup
- Clear form gap: Estrela Amadora is unbeaten in 5 matches (DDWDW), whereas Rio Ave lost 4 of their last 5 (LLWLL)
- Estrela Amadora averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, while Rio Ave managed only 1.8
Risks
- Estrela Amadora has a shorter recovery time with only 4 days since their last match
- The visitors struggle defensively on the road, conceding 2.13 goals per away game
- Historical head-to-head records favor Rio Ave, who won 3 of the last 4 encounters
All probabilities
Result
Rio Ave26%
Draw30%
Estrela Amadora44%
Double chance
Rio Ave or draw56%
Estrela Amadora or draw74%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
11%
0:0
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estrela Amadora: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 3 S. Garcia
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 39 E. Doué
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Substitutes
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 6 N. Abby
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 77 D. Špikić
- 54 G. Liavas
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 30 R. Galčík
- 60 C. Valença
- 70 A. Wenck
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 21 R. Šiler
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
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