Match report →
Nacional – Alverca1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Nacional
1.13
Total xG
2.30
Alverca
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.50 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Léo Santos not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Liziero not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Vivaldo Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 69% available) |
Key factors
- Balanced model prediction: The probabilities for home win (33%), draw (32%), and away win (35%) are extremely close
- Tactical focus: Nacional averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
- Defensive vulnerability of Alverca: The visitors conceded an average of 1.71 goals per away match this season
Risks
- Léo Santos and Liziero are missing for Nacional, leaving only 68% of the usual goal threat available
- Vivaldo Semedo is missing for Alverca, leaving only 69% of their goal threat available
- Low offensive output: Nacional averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Nacional33%
Draw32%
Alverca35%
Double chance
Nacional or draw65%
Alverca or draw67%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Alverca: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
- Nacional: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Nacional 4-3-3 · Alverca 3-4-3
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 52 W. de Oliveira Andrade
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 7 M. Jensen
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 6 D. Gui
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitutes
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 15 C. Abidi
- 26 J. Organista da Silva
- 50 K. Medeiros de Freitas
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 14 I. Mendes Fernandes
- 23 M. José Iseppe
- 12 M. Song
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
- 20 M. Djaló
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 23 A. Eusébio Paulo
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 18 Z. Kessary
- 15 I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
- 91 J. da Siqueira
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