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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Alverca

09/12/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Nacional
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Alverca
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
NACALV

Nacional

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
LĂ©o Santos not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Liziero not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

Alverca

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.50
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.01
Vivaldo Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Alverca: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)

  • 3
    Nacional: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

32%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Balanced model prediction: The probabilities for home win (33%), draw (32%), and away win (35%) are extremely close
  • Tactical focus: Nacional averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Defensive vulnerability of Alverca: The visitors conceded an average of 1.71 goals per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • LĂ©o Santos and Liziero are missing for Nacional, leaving only 68% of the usual goal threat available
  • Vivaldo Semedo is missing for Alverca, leaving only 69% of their goal threat available
  • Low offensive output: Nacional averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Nacional (11th place, 4 points) host Alverca (16th place, 2 points) at EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

A duel in the lower third of the standings

Form

Nacional has a form of DWLLL with 3 consecutive losses at the end

1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their form summary

Alverca shows a form of LDLDL and is still waiting for their first win

0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses for the visitors

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nacional averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per season

At home, the hosts concede an average of 1.10 goals per match

Alverca has an away goal average of 1.00 while conceding 1.71 goals per game

The visitors recorded 19 matches this season where both teams scored

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 17 of Alverca's matches

Head-to-Head

Only 2 head-to-head matches played so far

Even record with 1 win for Nacional and 1 win for Alverca

Goal difference of 1:1 in these encounters

The last meeting on April 18, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home win for Nacional

Key Players

Daniel Jr has 1 assist and an average rating of 7.07

Ze Vitor scored 1 goal in 5 appearances with a rating of 6.96

Pablo Ruan stands at 1 goal this season and a rating of 6.83

Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira leads the visitors with 1 goal and a rating of 7.27

Figueiredo has 1 goal this season and a rating of 7.19

Isaac James has already contributed 2 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Renato Marin starts in goal for Nacional with an average rating of 7.03

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira guards the goal for Alverca with a rating of 6.67

Nacional recorded 8 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Historically, this stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

Nacional has an even goal record of 23-23 at home

Alverca struggles away with 29 goals conceded

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