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Liga Portugal

Sporting CP - Arouca

09/19/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Sporting CP
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Arouca
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SCARO

Sporting CP

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.47
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Flávio Gonçalves on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Arouca

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-1.11
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.71
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Arouca: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Matchup edge: Sporting's home attack meets Arouca's vulnerable away defense conceding an average of 2.43 goals per game
  • Tactical control: Sporting CP averaged 58.6% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • H2H dominance: Sporting CP is undefeated against Arouca with 3 wins in 4 direct encounters
Risk Factors
  • Missing player impact: Flávio Gonçalves is not selected, removing 3 goals and 1 assist from Sporting's attack
  • Arouca's improved offense: The visitors currently score more frequently with an average of 1.8 goals than their season average of 1.5
Overview

Sporting CP (3rd place, 14 points) hosts Arouca (5th place, 10 points) at the Estádio José Alvalade

Liga Portugal clash on September 19, 2026, 8:30 PM

The home side enters this top-five matchup as the favorite

Form

Sporting CP is in great shape with a form curve of WWWWD

The hosts registered 4 wins and 1 draw in their last matches

Arouca shows mixed results with a form string of WLWDL

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats recently

Statistics

Sporting CP boasts a strong attack averaging 2.62 goals per game this season

Their defense remains stable with only 0.71 goals conceded per match and 15 clean sheets

Arouca averages 1.38 goals scored but concedes 2.43 goals per away game on average

Head-to-Head

The home side clearly dominated in the 4 head-to-head matches so far

Sporting CP achieved 3 wins and 1 draw, scoring 13:3 goals in the process

The last meeting ended with a 2:1 victory for Sporting CP

Key Players

Luis Suárez shines in attack with 5 season goals and a rating of 7.16

Geny Catamo contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far

Arouca relies on Naïs Djouahra who recorded 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Rui Silva guards the goal for Sporting and has kept 15 clean sheets this season

Ignacio de Arruabarrena plays in goal for Arouca, averaging a strong rating of 7.34

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio José Alvalade

The stadium statistics show an average of 3.6 goals per game with an Over 2.5 rate of 80%

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