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Sporting CP – Arouca2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sporting CP
1.51
Total xG
2.56
Arouca
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting CP | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −1.11 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.71 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Flávio Gonçalves on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup edge: Sporting's home attack meets Arouca's vulnerable away defense conceding an average of 2.43 goals per game
- Tactical control: Sporting CP averaged 58.6% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- H2H dominance: Sporting CP is undefeated against Arouca with 3 wins in 4 direct encounters
Risks
- Missing player impact: Flávio Gonçalves is not selected, removing 3 goals and 1 assist from Sporting's attack
- Arouca's improved offense: The visitors currently score more frequently with an average of 1.8 goals than their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
Sporting CP46%
Draw29%
Arouca25%
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw75%
Arouca or draw54%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Arouca: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1 · Arouca 4-2-3-1
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 6 Z. Debast
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitutes
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 4 S. Andersen
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 28 J. Derry
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 20 G. Rukavina
- 5 B. Popović
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 71 M. da Silva Duarte
- 27 M. R. G. Baldé
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