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Liga Portugal

Estoril - Casa Pia

09/20/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Estoril
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Casa Pia
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ESTCP

Estoril

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.38
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.37
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.12
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Casa Pia

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.68
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.20
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estoril: opponent scores first in 11 of 11 games (100%)

  • 2
    Yanis Begraoui: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

  • 4
    Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 5
    Casa Pia: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Counter strategy: Both teams played a defensive, counter-oriented style with under 44% possession recently
  • Goal drought: Offenses have dried up recently with both teams averaging only 0.25 goals per game
  • High-pressure clash: The match between 17th and 18th place puts massive pressure on both winless teams
Risk Factors
  • Away leaks: Casa Pia concedes a high average of 2.21 goals in away games
  • Low offensive output: Casa Pia averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match recently
  • Winless home streak: Estoril is struggling to break their negative trend of LLLDL
Overview

Bottom-of-the-table clash in Liga Portugal

Estoril (17th, 2 points) hosts Casa Pia (18th, 1 point)

Match on September 20, 2026, 6:00 PM

The model predicts a tight 1.20 to 1.14 with a 36% home win probability

Form

Both teams share an identical form curve of LLLDL

Estoril has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses recently

Casa Pia also stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Both sides suffered a defeat in their last match

Statistics

Estoril scores a season average of 1.59 goals per game

Casa Pia averages 0.91 goals scored per match

Estoril concedes an average of 1.44 goals at home

Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.21 goals away

Head-to-Head

Balanced record after 4 head-to-head games

Each side won 1 match alongside 2 draws

The last clash ended in a 0-0 draw on March 7, 2026

Overall goal difference remains level at 5-5

Key Players

Yanis Begraoui scored 2 goals in 6 matches with a 6.93 rating

Ismael Sierra solidifies the defense with a 6.99 rating

Jordan Holsgrove commands the midfield with a 7.17 rating

Henrique Araújo scored 1 goal with a rating of 6.55

Selvi Clua anchors the midfield with a 7.02 rating

David Sousa registers a defensive rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

Joel Robles started 6 matches in goal for Estoril this season

Ivan Mandić made 2 appearances for Casa Pia so far

Estoril has kept 5 clean sheets in the current campaign

Casa Pia managed 7 clean sheets over the season

Influences

The game will be on natural grass at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

The venue average is a low 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in only 40% of the last 5 games here

Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 20% of recent games

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