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Estoril – Casa Pia1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estoril
1.20
Total xG
2.34
Casa Pia
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estoril | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.68 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.38 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.37 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Counter strategy: Both teams played a defensive, counter-oriented style with under 44% possession recently
- Goal drought: Offenses have dried up recently with both teams averaging only 0.25 goals per game
- High-pressure clash: The match between 17th and 18th place puts massive pressure on both winless teams
Risks
- Away leaks: Casa Pia concedes a high average of 2.21 goals in away games
- Low offensive output: Casa Pia averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match recently
- Winless home streak: Estoril is struggling to break their negative trend of LLLDL
All probabilities
Result
Estoril36%
Draw32%
Casa Pia33%
Double chance
Estoril or draw67%
Casa Pia or draw64%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- Yanis Begraoui: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
- Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Casa Pia: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Estoril 4-2-3-1 · Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 6 X. Egea
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 21 R. Jurišić
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 44 M. Robin
- 9 A. Camblan
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 11 N. Omerović
- 14 Y. Begraoui
Casa Pia
- 95 I. Mandić
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 80 L. Ofori
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
Substitutes
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 35 S. Amissah
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 90 T. Brito
- 99 R. Guitane
- 16 M. Turk
- 19 T. Parente
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 43 F. Lowe
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 20 A. Jatta
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 59 A. Dafe
- 17 E. Maurin
- 44 F. da Silva
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