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Estrela Amadora – Academico Viseu0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estrela Amadora
1.38
Total xG
2.62
Academico Viseu
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estrela Amadora | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.59 | |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.43 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Estrela Amadora has only 37% of active goal share available
- Rising offensive form: Estrela Amadora scores more recently (2.4 average) than their season average (1.5)
- Threatening attack: Estrela Amadora averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Stalling offense: Academico Viseu's goal scoring has slowed down to 1.0 recently compared to their season average of 1.2
- Lack of shots: Academico Viseu averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data on historical head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Estrela Amadora38%
Draw29%
Academico Viseu32%
Double chance
Estrela Amadora or draw68%
Academico Viseu or draw62%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Estrela Amadora: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1 · Academico Viseu 4-2-3-1
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 5 S. Leković
- 4 B. Schappo
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 39 E. Doué
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 47 L. Gohi
- 33 A. Silva Filho
Substitutes
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
- 17 V. Fernández Estrada
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 3 M. Brau Blanquez
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 1 M. Lavín Rodríguez
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
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