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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Academico Viseu

09/20/2026, 02:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Estrela Amadora
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Academico Viseu
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
EAAV

Estrela Amadora

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.59
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.27
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
+0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
Full strength squad available

Academico Viseu

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.43
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    Estrela Amadora: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Estrela Amadora has only 37% of active goal share available
  • Rising offensive form: Estrela Amadora scores more recently (2.4 average) than their season average (1.5)
  • Threatening attack: Estrela Amadora averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Stalling offense: Academico Viseu's goal scoring has slowed down to 1.0 recently compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Lack of shots: Academico Viseu averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data on historical head-to-head matches
Overview

Estrela Amadora hosts Academico Viseu

Match on September 20, 2026, 4:30 PM

Estrela Amadora sits in 6th place with 10 points

Academico Viseu is in 10th place with 8 points

A balanced encounter in the Liga Portugal

Form

Estrela Amadora shows the form DWDWD

Their summary includes 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in the last five games

Academico Viseu displays the form LDLWW

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Estrela Amadora averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per game

At home, they score 1.11 and concede 1.26 goals on average

Academico Viseu scores 1.17 goals and concedes 1.5 on average

Away from home, the visitors score 1.25 and concede 1.0 goals on average

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches are available in the provided dataset

Direct comparison is not possible due to missing data

Key Players

Ianis Stoica has scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists with a rating of 7.32

Abraham Marcus has scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist with a rating of 7.54

Leandro Antonetti contributed 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.22

For the visitors, André Clóvis scored 2 goals with a rating of 6.71

JoĂŁo Guilherme has scored 1 goal with a rating of 7.05

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Linck guards the home team's goal with an average rating of 6.5

Ewerton is in goal for Academico Viseu with a rating of 7.33 and a declining trend

Influences

The match is played at Estådio José Gomes on grass

Venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches at this venue

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