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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Famalicão

09/19/2026, 02:30 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Nacional
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Famalicão
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:2

8%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
NACFAM

Nacional

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Léo Santos not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Liziero not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 36% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.39
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 2
    Famalicão: scored only after the break in 5 of 11 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Only 37% of goals share available without Léo Santos and Liziero
  • Famalicão recently averaged 2.8 shots on target
  • The mathematical model predicts a slight away trend with a 38% win probability for Famalicão
Risk Factors
  • Nacional recently averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match
  • The recent form curve shows a negative trend for both teams
  • Nacional's goal production is currently stalling with an average of 1.0 goals
Overview

Nacional (15th place, 4 points) faces Famalicão (13th place, 4 points)

Liga Portugal match on September 19, 2026, 3:30 PM at Estádio da Madeira

Both teams fight for crucial points in the lower tier of the table

Form

Nacional shows a weak form curve with a record of WLLLL

The home team recently suffered four consecutive losses

Famalicão has drawn three matches in a row with a record of LLDDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nacional scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.32 in 34 season matches

Famalicão averaged 1.24 goals and conceded 0.85 in 34 matches

Nacional kept 8 clean sheets, while Famalicão recorded 17 clean sheets

At home, Nacional conceded an average of 1.10 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches there was 1 home win, 2 away wins and 1 draw

Famalicão leads the historical record with 3 goals to 2

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Famalicão

Key Players

Ze Vitor stabilizes Nacional's defense with a rating of 6.94

Miguel Baeza brings attacking threat to the host's midfield with one season goal

For Famalicão, Sorriso stands out in attack with an average rating of 7.02

Finn van Breemen has already scored one season goal as a defender with a 6.95 rating

Georgios Koutsias is the guests' most dangerous forward with 3 goals in 6 matches

Goalkeepers

Renato Marin guards Nacional's goal with an average rating of 6.94

Lazar Carević starts in goal for Famalicão with a rating of 6.52

Nacional recorded 8 clean sheets so far this season

Famalicão has already kept 17 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at the Estádio da Madeira on natural grass

The historical goal rate at this stadium averages 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the previous home matches

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