Match report →
Nacional – Famalicão0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Nacional
1.17
Total xG
2.47
Famalicão
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nacional | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Léo Santos not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Liziero not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 36% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 37% of goals share available without Léo Santos and Liziero
- Famalicão recently averaged 2.8 shots on target
- The mathematical model predicts a slight away trend with a 38% win probability for Famalicão
Risks
- Nacional recently averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match
- The recent form curve shows a negative trend for both teams
- Nacional's goal production is currently stalling with an average of 1.0 goals
All probabilities
Result
Nacional31%
Draw30%
Famalicão38%
Double chance
Nacional or draw62%
Famalicão or draw69%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:2
8%
1:0
8%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Famalicão: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Famalicão: scored only after the break in 5 of 11 games
Lineups
Nacional 4-1-4-1 · Famalicão 4-2-3-1
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 5 J. Mendes Gomes
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 15 C. Abidi
- 20 M. Djaló
- 12 M. Song
- 9 A. Obando
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 21 T. Szücs
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Substitutes
- 7 M. Jensen
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 50 K. Medeiros de Freitas
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 14 I. Mendes Fernandes
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 23 M. José Iseppe
- 52 W. de Oliveira Andrade
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 33 P. Salas
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 5 L. Meyer
- 22 G. Cabral da Cruz
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →