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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Sporting Braga

09/20/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Sporting Braga
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SCSB

Santa Clara

Attack strength (1.39x league average)
-0.55
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Sporting Braga

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.85
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.58
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.49
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Demir Ege Tıknaz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (12/12 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Sporting Braga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

31%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Only 34% of Santa Clara's usual goal production is currently active in the starting lineup
  • Sporting Braga recently averaged 58.4% possession and 5.0 shots on target per match
  • Santa Clara is on a positive trend, currently averaging 1.8 goals scored per game
Risk Factors
  • Sporting Braga's goal production has slowed recently to 1.25 goals compared to their 1.92 season average
  • Defensive absence of S. Niakate for Sporting Braga due to an Achilles tendon rupture
  • Limited data availability on total duels in the provided dataset
Overview

Santa Clara (4th place, 14 points) host Sporting Braga (7th place, 10 points) at the Estádio de São Miguel

Liga Portugal match on September 20, 2026, 6:00 PM

A competitive clash as both teams aim to strengthen their positions near the top of the table

Form

Santa Clara are in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw (Form: WWDWW)

Sporting Braga recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently (Form: DWWLW)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santa Clara averaged 0.94 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game this season

Sporting Braga show a stronger attack, averaging 1.88 goals scored per match

Santa Clara's home record stands at 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded on average

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 direct encounters, Santa Clara won 1 match, Sporting Braga won 2, and 1 ended in a draw

The last meeting resulted in a 2-1 home victory for Santa Clara

A total of 3 goals were scored by Santa Clara and 5 by Sporting Braga across these matches

Key Players

Gonçalo Paciência leads the hosts with 5 goals and 1 assist (7.27 average rating)

Brenner has contributed 2 goals with a rating of 7.19 this season

Pau Víctor has been key for Sporting Braga, scoring 3 goals and providing 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Lucas França has made 6 appearances for Santa Clara with an average rating of 6.97

Bernardo has represented Sporting Braga with a rating of 6.54

Santa Clara kept 10 clean sheets this season, while Sporting Braga secured 12 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage plays a role at the Estádio de São Miguel, which averages 2.8 goals per match

Santa Clara are reliable playing on a grass surface

The model predicts a tight outcome, estimating 1.23 expected goals for the hosts and 1.17 for the visitors

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