Match report →
Santa Clara – Sporting Braga0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Santa Clara
1.23
Total xG
2.40
Sporting Braga
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santa Clara | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.85 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | −0.55 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Demir Ege Tıknaz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 34% of Santa Clara's usual goal production is currently active in the starting lineup
- Sporting Braga recently averaged 58.4% possession and 5.0 shots on target per match
- Santa Clara is on a positive trend, currently averaging 1.8 goals scored per game
Risks
- Sporting Braga's goal production has slowed recently to 1.25 goals compared to their 1.92 season average
- Defensive absence of S. Niakate for Sporting Braga due to an Achilles tendon rupture
- Limited data availability on total duels in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Santa Clara36%
Draw31%
Sporting Braga33%
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw67%
Sporting Braga or draw64%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (12/12 games, last 30)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 8 games)
Lineups
Santa Clara 4-3-3 · Sporting Braga 3-4-3
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 37 L. Barišić
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 21 R. Horta
- 17 J. Milošević
- 10 Pau Victor
Substitutes
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 25 F. Medeiros Silva
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
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