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Liga Portugal

Alverca - Rio Ave

09/19/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Alverca
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Rio Ave
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ALVRA

Alverca

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.24
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.15
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
Vivaldo Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Rio Ave

Attack weakness (0.34x league average)
-1.02
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.61
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Alverca: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Limited offensive power for Rio Ave as only 14% of seasonal goal production is available in the current squad
  • Mathematical advantage for Alverca with a calculated 72% probability for a home win or draw
  • Higher offensive efficiency as Alverca averaged 3.4 shots on target recently compared to 2.6 for Rio Ave
Risk Factors
  • High defensive vulnerability as Rio Ave concedes an average of 1.65 goals in away matches
  • Counter-attacking focus on both sides as both teams averaged only 42% possession recently
  • Alverca concedes an average of 1.35 goals per game in front of their home crowd
Overview

Alverca hosts Rio Ave

Liga Portugal match on September 19, 2026, 6:00 PM

Alverca currently sits in 12th place with 5 points

Rio Ave travels as 16th place with 4 points

An important clash in the lower half of the table

Form

Alverca form: DLDLW

Rio Ave form: LWLLD

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Alverca recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Rio Ave secured 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

The home team comes off a victory in their last game

Statistics

Alverca scored an average of 1.03 goals and conceded 1.53 goals this season

Rio Ave averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match

Alverca conceded an average of 1.35 goals in home games

Rio Ave conceded an average of 1.65 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

Alverca with 1 win, Rio Ave with 0 wins and 1 draw

Goal difference of 3:2 in favor of Alverca

The last encounter ended 2:1 for Alverca on April 4, 2026

Key Players

Dawda Camara with 2 goals for Alverca

Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

Figueiredo scored 1 goal this season for the hosts

Jalen Blesa registered 2 goals and 1 assist for Rio Ave

Diogo Bezerra contributed 3 assists so far

Francisco Petrasso scored 1 goal this season

Goalkeepers

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira guards the goal for Alverca

VĂ­tor Hugo starts in goal for Rio Ave

Alverca kept 6 clean sheets so far this season

Rio Ave also recorded 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

The venue averages 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed matches at this stadium

Alverca holds a rest advantage with 7 days since their last match compared to 5 days for Rio Ave

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