Match report →
Alverca – Rio Ave1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Alverca
1.25
Total xG
2.27
Rio Ave
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Alverca | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.34x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.61 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Vivaldo Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited offensive power for Rio Ave as only 14% of seasonal goal production is available in the current squad
- Mathematical advantage for Alverca with a calculated 72% probability for a home win or draw
- Higher offensive efficiency as Alverca averaged 3.4 shots on target recently compared to 2.6 for Rio Ave
Risks
- High defensive vulnerability as Rio Ave concedes an average of 1.65 goals in away matches
- Counter-attacking focus on both sides as both teams averaged only 42% possession recently
- Alverca concedes an average of 1.35 goals per game in front of their home crowd
All probabilities
Result
Alverca40%
Draw32%
Rio Ave28%
Double chance
Alverca or draw72%
Rio Ave or draw60%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Alverca: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Alverca 3-4-3 · Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 6 D. Gui
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Rio Ave
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 3 S. Garcia
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 30 R. Galčík
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Substitutes
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 18 Z. Kessary
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 24 E. Jemide
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 77 D. Špikić
- 22 K. Chamorro Rodríguez
- 54 G. Liavas
- 27 T. Medina
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 60 C. Valença
- 70 A. Wenck
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 21 R. Šiler
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