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Liga Portugal

Vitória Guimarães - Moreirense

09/20/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Vitória Guimarães
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Moreirense
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VGMOR

Vitória Guimarães

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
+1.33
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.92
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Miguel Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-1.24
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.77
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Alexandre Parsemain on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Moreirense: 43% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 14)

  • 2
    Moreirense: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Vitória Guimarães: 56% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 9)

  • 4
    Moreirense: 71% of all goals in the first half (10 of 14, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Vitória Guimarães must play without Miguel Nogueira, leaving only 74% of their typical starting lineup strength available
  • Vitória Guimarães averaged 5.0 shots on target with 51% possession in recent matches
  • Vitória Guimarães concede only 0.83 goals per home game, compared to Moreirense's away average of 1.75 goals conceded
Risk Factors
  • According to advanced stats, both teams are struggling to produce goals, averaging 1.0 goals in recent matches
  • Moreirense concede an average of 1.75 goals on the road this season
Overview

Vitória Guimarães host Moreirense at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Liga Portugal match on September 20, 2026, 3:30 PM

Moreirense are in 13th place with 7 points, while Vitória Guimarães sit in 14th place with 4 points

A close battle in the lower half of the table

Form

Vitória Guimarães form: LWLDL with one win and three losses in their last five matches

Moreirense form: LWLLW with two wins and three losses in their last five games

Vitória Guimarães lost their last match 1-2 against Academico Viseu

Moreirense won their last match 3-1 against Marítimo

Statistics

Vitória Guimarães scored an average of 1.15 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per match this season

Strong home defense with only 0.83 goals conceded per home game for Vitória Guimarães

Moreirense average 1.09 goals scored and concede an average of 1.75 goals in away matches

Both teams scored in 16 of Moreirense's matches this season

Head-to-Head

Historical record from 4 head-to-head matches shows 2 wins for Vitória Guimarães and 1 win for Moreirense

There was also one draw

The last meeting on January 30, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home win for Vitória Guimarães

The overall goal difference in direct duels is balanced at 4-4 goals

Key Players

Gustavo Silva scored one goal in six season matches with an average rating of 7.33

Alan de Souza Guimarães provided one assist in his single season appearance

Leonardo Vonić scored one goal in his only appearance, averaging a rating of 6.95

Goalkeepers

Oliwier Zych started six games for Vitória Guimarães, averaging a rating of 6.66

André Ferreira also played six games for Moreirense, holding an average rating of 6.65

Vitória Guimarães secured five clean sheets at home, while Moreirense kept four clean sheets on the road

Influences

The average total goals at this venue stands at 1.0 goals per game

Moreirense play away from home, where they conceded an average of 1.75 goals

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 54%

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