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Vitória Guimarães – Moreirense1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vitória Guimarães
1.76
Total xG
2.73
Moreirense
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória Guimarães | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +1.33 | |
| Attack weakness (0.42x league average) | −1.24 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.92 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.77 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Miguel Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Alexandre Parsemain on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vitória Guimarães must play without Miguel Nogueira, leaving only 74% of their typical starting lineup strength available
- Vitória Guimarães averaged 5.0 shots on target with 51% possession in recent matches
- Vitória Guimarães concede only 0.83 goals per home game, compared to Moreirense's away average of 1.75 goals conceded
Risks
- According to advanced stats, both teams are struggling to produce goals, averaging 1.0 goals in recent matches
- Moreirense concede an average of 1.75 goals on the road this season
All probabilities
Result
Vitória Guimarães54%
Draw26%
Moreirense19%
Double chance
Vitória Guimarães or draw81%
Moreirense or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Moreirense: 43% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 14)
- Moreirense: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: 56% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 9)
- Moreirense: 71% of all goals in the first half (10 of 14, last 12 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1 · Moreirense 3-4-2-1
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 23 T. Strata
- 21 T. Borevković
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 13 João Mendes
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 44 L. Doucet
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 7 O. Camara
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 79 L. Vonić
Substitutes
- 19 V. Andersson
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 22 J. Castillo Reyes
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
- 9 A. Duville-Parsemain
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 12 F. Barbosa
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