Match report →
Porto – Benfica3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Porto
1.34
Total xG
2.97
Benfica
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Leandro Barreiro on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.8 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Extreme Squad Impact: Porto currently plays with reduced efficiency as only 23% of their usual goal production is available
- Benfica's attacking trend: The visitors scored an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches, which is higher than their season average of 2.3
- Mathematical prediction: The calculation model favors Benfica with a 43% chance of securing an away win
Risks
- Shorter recovery time: Benfica had only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Porto's 8 days of recovery
- Defensive strain: The calculated BTTS probability is high at 61%
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Porto30%
Draw27%
Benfica43%
Double chance
Porto or draw57%
Benfica or draw70%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Benfica: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Borja Sainz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. Prpić
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 22 A. Varela
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 64 L. Domingos Vieira Barata Gomes
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 1 A. Trubin
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 3 A. Circati
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
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