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Liga Portugal

Porto - Benfica

09/20/2026, 07:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Porto
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Benfica
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PORBEN

Porto

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.70
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.60
Attack strength (1.43x league average)
-0.58
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Strong home record (2.8 vs 1.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Benfica

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.58
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.24x league average)
-0.05
Leandro Barreiro on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)

  • 2
    Benfica: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)

  • 3
    Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 4
    Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 6
    Borja Sainz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Extreme Squad Impact: Porto currently plays with reduced efficiency as only 23% of their usual goal production is available
  • Benfica's attacking trend: The visitors scored an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches, which is higher than their season average of 2.3
  • Mathematical prediction: The calculation model favors Benfica with a 43% chance of securing an away win
Risk Factors
  • Shorter recovery time: Benfica had only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Porto's 8 days of recovery
  • Defensive strain: The calculated BTTS probability is high at 61%
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Top clash in Liga Portugal on September 20, 2026, 8:30 PM

League leaders Porto (1st place, 18 points) host rivals Benfica (2nd place, 16 points) at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo

A crucial battle for the top spot of the table

Form

Porto displays strong momentum with WWWLW and 4 wins in their last 5 matches

Benfica arrives with a flawless WWWWW record and a running streak of 5 consecutive wins

Both sides show a highly positive and stable form trend

Statistics

Porto scores an average of 1.94 goals per match and concedes only 0.35 goals at home

Benfica counters with a powerful offense averaging 2.18 goals per game

Porto saw 19 over 2.5 goals matches this season, while Benfica recorded 24

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Porto did not record a single home victory

Benfica secured 2 wins, with 2 matches ending in a draw

The most recent meeting on March 8, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

For Porto, Gabri Veiga (3 goals, 3 assists) and William Gomes (2 goals, 2 assists) lead the attacking stats

Jan Bednarek secures the defensive line with a high seasonal rating

Benfica relies on Gianluca Prestianni with 5 goals and Vangelis Pavlidis with 8 goals, alongside defender Clément Lenglet

Goalkeepers

Porto counts on goalkeeper Diogo Costa with a 6.98 rating and 21 clean sheets this season

Benfica is protected by Samuel Soares with a 6.76 rating and 14 clean sheets in total

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo

Porto benefits from an exceptionally stable home defense of only 0.35 conceded goals per game

The stadium averages 2.0 total goals per match

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