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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Marítimo

09/19/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Marítimo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
GVMAR

Gil Vicente

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.18
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Strong home record (2 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Marítimo

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.94
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.60
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Marítimo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

  • 2
    Gil Vicente: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Squad availability: Only 9% of the seasonal goal threat is available in Gil Vicente's starting lineup
  • Tactical metric: Gil Vicente averaged 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Defensive gap: Marítimo concedes an average of 2.00 goals away from home with only one clean sheet
Risk Factors
  • Marítimo averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Marítimo concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away match
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
Overview

Gil Vicente hosts Marítimo at the Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Liga Portugal match on September 19, 2026, 3:30 PM

Both teams are level on 7 points in the mid-table

A balanced duel between the 9th and 10th-placed sides

Form

Gil Vicente enters with a form of WWDLL

The hosts recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

Marítimo travels with a form of WDLLL

The visitors have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their record

Both teams lost their last two league matches

Statistics

Gil Vicente scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 1.12 per game

At home, their average is 1.40 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded

Marítimo scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.83 per match

Away from home, Marítimo concedes an average of 2.00 goals while scoring 1.33

The historical average at this venue stands at 2.2 goals per game

Key Players

Héctor Hernández has 3 goals, one assist, and a rating of 7.05

Gil Martins contributed one goal and one assist with a rating of 6.87

Diogo Ferreira Prioste stands out with an average rating of 7.08

Martín Tejón recorded one goal, one assist, and a rating of 7.04

Adrián Butzke Benavides has one goal this season and a rating of 6.92

Raphael Guzzo scored one goal with a rating of 6.99

Goalkeepers

Lucão starts in goal for Gil Vicente with a season rating of 6.79

Gil Vicente recorded 12 clean sheets overall this season

Fran Vieites is in goal for Marítimo but has not made any season appearances yet

Marítimo has achieved 1 clean sheet so far this campaign

Influences

Gil Vicente leverages home advantage, conceding only 0.85 goals per game at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

The match will be played on natural grass in familiar surroundings

The historical average at this venue stands at 2.2 goals per game

The home win is mathematically calculated at a probability of 44%

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