Match report →
Gil Vicente – Marítimo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gil Vicente
1.44
Total xG
2.51
Marítimo
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gil Vicente | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.94 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad availability: Only 9% of the seasonal goal threat is available in Gil Vicente's starting lineup
- Tactical metric: Gil Vicente averaged 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive gap: Marítimo concedes an average of 2.00 goals away from home with only one clean sheet
Risks
- Marítimo averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Marítimo concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away match
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Gil Vicente44%
Draw30%
Marítimo26%
Double chance
Gil Vicente or draw74%
Marítimo or draw56%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Marítimo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1 · Marítimo 4-2-3-1
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
Marítimo
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 22 G. Szalai
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 18 V. Danilović
- 8 M. Dominguez
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
Substitutes
- 17 S. Bermejo Lillo
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 2 J. Silva
- 26 W. Moreira da Costa
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 99 M. Kaba
- 21 I. Alani
- 12 M. Bassouamina
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 5 N. Lopes
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
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