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Moreirense – Gil Vicente0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Moreirense
1.18
Total xG
2.54
Gil Vicente
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Moreirense | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alexandre Parsemain not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Only 11% of the seasonal goal threat is currently available for Gil Vicente
- Tactical setup: Moreirense recently played highly counter-oriented, averaging just 33% possession
- Model prediction: The model gives Gil Vicente a slight advantage with a 39% win probability
Risks
- Moreirense averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Gil Vicente's goal production has stalled, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Moreirense31%
Draw30%
Gil Vicente39%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Moreirense or draw61%
Gil Vicente or draw69%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gil Vicente: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Moreirense: 43% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 14)
- Moreirense: 2.8 cards per game (29 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Moreirense 4-2-3-1 · Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 79 L. Vonić
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
Substitutes
- 20 J. Fins Veloso
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 12 F. Barbosa
- 17 S. Bermejo Lillo
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 9 W. dos Santos França
- 99 M. Kaba
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