Match report →
Marítimo – Porto1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Marítimo
0.99
Total xG
2.65
Porto
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Marítimo | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Gabri Veiga on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Pablo Rosario on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Porto lead the table with 7 wins from 7 matches, with the model calculating a 51% away win probability
- Form gap: Porto averaged 2.4 goals scored recently while Marítimo conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match
- Tactical edge: Porto averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to 2.8 for Marítimo
Risks
- Squad impact: Porto start without Gabri Veiga and Pablo Rosario, leaving only 72% of usual active goal threat available
- Match break: Both teams face a long break since their last match with 21 days for Marítimo and 20 days for Porto
- Defensive variance: Porto conceded an average of 1.0 goal in recent matches compared to 0.53 across the season
All probabilities
Result
Marítimo21%
Draw27%
Porto51%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Marítimo or draw49%
Porto or draw79%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Borja Sainz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Marítimo: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Marítimo 4-2-3-1 · Porto 4-3-3
Marítimo
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 22 G. Szalai
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 21 I. Alani
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 15 T. Tavares
- 8 M. Dominguez
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 74 F. Moura
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 22 A. Varela
- 16 I. Hwang
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Substitutes
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 3 N. Ogbeta
- 12 M. Bassouamina
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 18 V. Danilović
- 11 M. Diouri
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 42 S. Fofana
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 13 P. Rosario
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 6 C. Smalling
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
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