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Academico Viseu – Estoril2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Academico Viseu
1.38
Total xG
2.39
Estoril
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Academico Viseu | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 7, 11 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 18, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Yanis Begraoui on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Only 48% of threat available without Yanis Begraoui
- Form gap: Academico Viseu enter with 3 consecutive wins while Estoril lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Model signal: Calculations give Academico Viseu a 44% win probability
Risks
- Home defense: Academico Viseu concede 2.5 goals per home match
- Away vulnerability: Estoril concede 1.94 goals per away match
- Shot volume: Academico Viseu averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Academico Viseu44%
Draw30%
Estoril26%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Academico Viseu or draw74%
Estoril or draw56%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Yanis Begraoui: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Academico Viseu 4-2-3-1 · Estoril 3-4-2-1
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 3 M. Brau Blanquez
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 47 L. Gohi
- 33 A. Silva Filho
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 35 S. Amissah
- 6 X. Egea
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 44 M. Robin
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 21 R. Jurišić
- 99 R. Guitane
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
Substitutes
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 1 M. Lavín Rodríguez
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 77 P. Pereira Araújo
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 9 A. Camblan
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 14 Y. Begraoui
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 90 T. Brito
- 16 M. Turk
- 19 T. Parente
- 11 N. Omerović
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 43 F. Lowe
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