Match report →
Casa Pia – Santa Clara0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Casa Pia
0.94
Total xG
2.38
Santa Clara
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: Santa Clara are unbeaten in 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws) while Casa Pia sit in 17th place
- Offensive trend: Santa Clara recently averaged 2.0 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
- Head-to-head record: Santa Clara are unbeaten in 4 meetings (3 wins, 1 draw) and favored by the model
Risks
- Low shot volume: Santa Clara averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Home goal struggle: Casa Pia averaged only 0.9 goals per home match
- Limited attacking threats: Casa Pia averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Casa Pia23%
Draw30%
Santa Clara47%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Casa Pia or draw53%
Santa Clara or draw77%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
12%
0:0
11%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/11 games, last 30)
- Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Santa Clara: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Casa Pia: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1 · Santa Clara 4-3-3
Casa Pia
- 95 I. Mandić
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 80 L. Ofori
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
Substitutes
- 20 A. Jatta
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 21 A. Zouin
- 17 E. Maurin
- 44 F. da Silva
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
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