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Liga Portugal10/09/2026, 07:15 PM

Sporting Braga – Sporting CP1 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Sporting Braga
1.28
Total xG
2.50
Sporting CP
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorSporting BragaSporting CP
Attack strength (1.6x league average)−0.88
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.68
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.51
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)−0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.28
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)−0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean−0.10
Attack strength (1.73x league average)+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)−0.02
Demir Ege Tıknaz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Luis SuĂĄrez on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Flåvio Gonçalves on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Maxi AraĂșjo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Zalazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 57% available)

Key factors

  • Huge squad blow for Sporting CP with only 57% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
  • Braga's goal production has slowed down averaging 1.25 goals recently compared to their 1.92 season average
  • Sporting CP averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target in recent matches

Risks

  • Sporting CP miss key offensive players Luis SuĂĄrez, FlĂĄvio Gonçalves, Maxi AraĂșjo, and Rodrigo Zalazar
  • Defender Z. Debast is suspended for Sporting CP due to a red card
  • Sporting Braga averaged only 4.4 shots on target in recent matches showing decreased offensive efficiency

All probabilities

Result
Sporting Braga36%
Draw30%
Sporting CP33%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Sporting Braga or draw67%
Sporting CP or draw64%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Sporting CP: 7 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
  2. Sporting Braga: first goal in 8 of 9 games (89%)
  3. Sporting CP: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
  4. Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  5. Sporting Braga: 4 of 9 goals scored by substitutes (last 8 games)
  6. Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

Lineups

Sporting Braga 3-4-2-1 · Sporting CP 4-3-3

Sporting Braga
  • 31 B. Parise Fontes
  • 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
  • 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
  • 44 A. Bajrami
  • 2 V. GĂłmez Perea
  • 29 G. Baptiste
  • 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
  • 11 G. Silva Vieira
  • 23 D. Huseinbasic
  • 21 R. Horta
  • 10 Pau Victor
Sporting CP
  • 1 R. Dantas da Silva
  • 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
  • 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra SimĂ”es
  • 25 G. InĂĄcio
  • 13 G. Vagiannidis
  • 4 S. Andersen
  • 5 S. Altimira Clavell
  • 77 I. Doumbia
  • 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
  • 7 F. Ioannidis
  • 19 N. Irankunda
Substitutes
  • 19 J. Older Wind
  • 17 J. MiloĆĄević
  • 14 G. Lagerbielke
  • 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
  • 20 M. Dorgeles
  • 77 G. MartĂ­nez Aguilera
  • 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
  • 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
  • 34 D. Tıknaz
  • 16 T. MarquĂ©s Morera
  • 7 D. Martins Travassos
  • 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
  • 97 L. SuĂĄrez Charris
  • 20 M. AraĂșjo Vilches
  • 31 L. Lira dos Santos
  • 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas SimĂ”es
  • 17 R. Zalazar MartĂ­nez
  • 58 F. Gonçalves
  • 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira FelicĂ­ssimo
  • 9 R. Nel
  • 21 P. Lima Barros
  • 55 I. Ba
  • 30 K. Pereira Azarias
  • 28 J. Derry

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