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Famalicão – Alverca1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Famalicão
1.09
Total xG
2.32
Alverca
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Famalicão | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Vivaldo Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Famalicão only have 19% of their usual goal threat available
- Form trend advantage: Alverca come off 2 consecutive wins while Famalicão previously recorded 3 draws in a row
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a slight edge for Alverca with a 38% win probability
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Alverca conceded an average of 1.71 goals per away match this season
- Low threat creation: Famalicão averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Famalicão31%
Draw32%
Alverca37%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Famalicão or draw63%
Alverca or draw69%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Alverca: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Famalicão 4-2-3-1 · Alverca 3-4-3
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 21 T. Szücs
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 6 D. Gui
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitutes
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 6 T. van de Looi
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 30 V. Serafimović
- 33 P. Salas
- 22 G. Cabral da Cruz
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 24 E. Jemide
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