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Liga Portugal10/11/2026, 07:30 PM

Arouca – Estrela Amadora1 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Arouca
1.36
Total xG
2.76
Estrela Amadora
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAroucaEstrela Amadora
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.51
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean−0.01
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Balanced model prediction: Mathematical model gives Estrela Amadora a 37% win chance and Arouca 35%
  • Offensive trend: Estrela Amadora currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)
  • Tactical metric: Estrela Amadora averaged 14.6 shots total and 4.2 shots on target in recent matches

Risks

  • Squad impact: Only 37% of seasonal goal threat is currently available for Estrela Amadora
  • Defensive vulnerability: Estrela Amadora concedes 2.13 goals per away match
  • Match gap: Both teams have not played a competitive match in over 20 days

All probabilities

Result
Arouca35%
Draw29%
Estrela Amadora37%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Arouca or draw63%
Estrela Amadora or draw65%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
  2. Estrela Amadora: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  3. Arouca: 74% of all goals in the second half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
  4. Arouca: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
  5. Arouca: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sporting CP: 2 goals (81', 87')

Lineups

Arouca 4-2-3-1 · Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1

Arouca
  • 12 I. De Arruabarrena FernĂĄndez
  • 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
  • 15 J. SĂĄnchez de Felipe
  • 3 J. FontĂĄn MondragĂłn
  • 18 O. Lebedenko
  • 6 E. van Ee
  • 8 T. Fukui
  • 19 A. Trezza HernĂĄndez
  • 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
  • 7 N. Djouahra
  • 17 I. MartĂ­nez GonzĂĄlvez
Estrela Amadora
  • 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
  • 21 M. Scholze
  • 30 L. Wiedthauper
  • 5 S. Leković
  • 55 L. Soares Alves
  • 78 S. Ferreira Serra
  • 39 E. DouĂ©
  • 99 A. Marcus
  • 14 L. Zvonarek
  • 10 I. Stoica
  • 37 L. Antonetti
Substitutes
  • 37 M. Climent PlĂĄ
  • 9 F. Mayulu
  • 20 G. Rukavina
  • 2 L. Shahar
  • 5 B. Popović
  • 14 H. Lee
  • 24 B. Mansilla
  • 21 M. Flores Lozano
  • 89 P. Carvalho Santos
  • 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
  • 23 D. NandĂ­n Berrutti
  • 1 J. Vinarčík
  • 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
  • 4 B. Schappo
  • 17 J. Silva Encada
  • 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
  • 80 A. Souza de Jesus
  • 6 K. Höög-Jansson
  • 28 T. Moustier
  • 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
  • 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
  • 72 H.Poniewas
  • 93 B. Loussakou Souza
  • 71 E. Pedro Vanga

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