Match report →
Benfica – Vitória Guimarães2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Benfica
2.02
Total xG
3.09
Vitória Guimarães
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Benfica | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.27x league average) | +1.72 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −1.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.75 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Strong home record (2.9 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Low active goal share: Available players represent only 28% of Benfica's total goal production and 10% for Vitória Guimarães
- Away defensive vulnerability: Benfica's attack meets Vitória Guimarães conceding an average of 2.91 goals per away match
- Mathematical model indication: Benfica averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, with the prediction model estimating a 58% home win
Risks
- Vitória Guimarães concede an average of 2.91 goals per away match
- Vitória Guimarães recently managed only 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
Benfica58%
Draw24%
Vitória Guimarães18%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Benfica or draw82%
Vitória Guimarães or draw42%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Benfica: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Vitória Guimarães: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Vitória Guimarães: 56% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 9)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 3 A. Circati
- 44 T. Araújo
- 26 S. Dahl
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 23 T. Strata
- 21 T. Borevković
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 13 João Mendes
- 44 L. Doucet
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 7 O. Camara
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Substitutes
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 16 M. Silva
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 88 T. Dias Freitas
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 33 Gabriel Queiroz
- 19 V. Andersson
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 98 L. Furtado dos Santos
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →