Match report →
Rio Ave – Nacional3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Rio Ave
1.30
Total xG
2.58
Nacional
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rio Ave | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 50% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Léo Santos not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model projections indicate a tightly balanced match with 36% home win and 34% away win probability
- Form struggles on both sides as Rio Ave won once in five games (WLLDL) while Nacional lost five straight (LLLLL)
- Defensive vulnerabilities present with both teams conceding over 1.6 goals per game in their respective home/away splits
Risks
- Squad impact for Nacional: Only 57% of goal threat available with Léo Santos missing from squad
- Nacional averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Nacional concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Rio Ave36%
Draw30%
Nacional34%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Rio Ave or draw66%
Nacional or draw64%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rio Ave: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Nacional 4-2-3-1
Rio Ave
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 54 G. Liavas
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 15 C. Abidi
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 20 M. Djaló
- 12 M. Song
- 29 N. Kader
Substitutes
- 90 D. Santos Nascimento
- 77 D. Špikić
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 27 T. Medina
- 8 R. da Silva Pae
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 30 R. Galčík
- 60 C. Valença
- 70 A. Wenck
- 3 S. Garcia
- 7 M. Jensen
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 5 J. Mendes Gomes
- 26 J. Organista da Silva
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 14 I. Mendes Fernandes
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
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