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Vitória Guimarães – Marítimo5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vitória Guimarães
1.56
Total xG
2.44
Marítimo
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória Guimarães | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.87 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.56 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.55 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Miguel Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Vitória Guimarães concedes 0.5 goals per game at home in the league, Marítimo 1.75 per game away
- xG: Vitória Guimarães generated 1.4 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.4 goals per game
- Tactics: Vitória Guimarães averaged 4.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Marítimo 2.8
Risks
- Table: Marítimo is 11th in the league with 8 points, Vitória Guimarães is 15th with 5 points
- Form: Vitória Guimarães has no wins in the last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses
All probabilities
Result
Vitória Guimarães52%
Draw29%
Marítimo20%
Double chance
Vitória Guimarães or draw80%
Marítimo or draw48%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.56 : 0.88, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória Guimarães: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Vitória Guimarães: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Vitória Guimarães: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Marítimo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (4 of 8)
Lineups
Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1 · Marítimo 4-2-3-1
Vitória Guimarães
- 98 L. Furtado dos Santos
- 23 T. Strata
- 21 T. Borevković
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 13 João Mendes
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 7 O. Camara
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Marítimo
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 22 G. Szalai
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 15 T. Tavares
- 8 M. Dominguez
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
Substitutes
- 44 L. Doucet
- 19 V. Andersson
- 48 O. Zych
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 24 A. Ndoye
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 15 Y. Mosquera Mosquera
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 21 I. Alani
- 3 N. Ogbeta
- 12 M. Bassouamina
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 5 N. Lopes
- 11 M. Diouri
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
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