Match report →
Santa Clara – Benfica1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Santa Clara
0.81
Total xG
2.98
Benfica
2.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santa Clara | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Gonçalo Paciência on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| José Luís Rocha Tavares not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Benfica scores 3.75 goals per away game in the league this season
- Attack: Benfica has scored 24 goals in 8 league games this season (3 per game)
- Head-to-head: Benfica won 3 of the 4 previous meetings against Santa Clara, with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Santa Clara is undefeated in 8 league games this season with 0.5 goals conceded per game
- Defense: Santa Clara conceded 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Santa Clara12%
Draw21%
Benfica67%
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw33%
Benfica or draw88%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
0:2
From xG 0.81 : 2.16, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
9%
1:3
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Santa Clara: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)
- Santa Clara: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Santa Clara 4-2-3-1 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 25 F. Medeiros Silva
- 81 S. Fofana
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 88 T. Dias Freitas
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 33 Gabriel Queiroz
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