Match report →
Nacional – Sporting Braga1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nacional
0.95
Total xG
2.59
Sporting Braga
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nacional | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.80 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Sporting Braga sits 9th with 11 points, while Nacional is 17th with 4 points from 8 games
- Form: Nacional lost their last 5 matches, conceding 3 goals per game
- Home/Away: Nacional has conceded 2.5 goals per game at home in 4 league games this season
Risks
- Rest days: Sporting Braga with 3 days since their last match
- Form: Sporting Braga lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 0.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Nacional20%
Draw28%
Sporting Braga52%
Double chance
Nacional or draw48%
Sporting Braga or draw80%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.95 : 1.64, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
2:1
6%
0:3
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sporting Braga with Gorby starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (17/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Nacional 5-4-1 · Sporting Braga 3-4-2-1
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 7 M. Jensen
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 15 C. Abidi
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 12 M. Song
- 29 N. Kader
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 10 Pau Victor
- 21 R. Horta
- 17 J. Milošević
Substitutes
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 5 J. Mendes Gomes
- 26 J. Organista da Silva
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 14 I. Mendes Fernandes
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
- 20 M. Djaló
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 37 L. Barišić
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
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