Match report →
Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estrela Amadora
1.64
Total xG
2.67
Casa Pia
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estrela Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.43 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| 54% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Estrela Amadora sit 10th with 10 points, Casa Pia are 17th with 4 points in 8 league matches
- Attack: Estrela Amadora scored 1.75 goals per match in the league this season, Casa Pia 0.38 per match
Risks
- Defense: Estrela Amadora conceded 1.88 goals per match in the league this season in 8 matches
- Form: Estrela Amadora recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Estrela Amadora50%
Draw28%
Casa Pia22%
Double chance
Estrela Amadora or draw78%
Casa Pia or draw50%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.64 : 1.02, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Estrela Amadora: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Casa Pia: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Estrela Amadora 4-5-1 · Casa Pia 4-1-4-1
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 39 E. Doué
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Casa Pia
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 80 L. Ofori
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
Substitutes
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 28 T. Moustier
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 72 H.Poniewas
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 20 A. Jatta
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 27 K. Rocha Lima
- 29 J. Livolant
- 95 I. Mandić
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 17 E. Maurin
- 44 F. da Silva
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →