Match report →
Sporting CP – Academico Viseu1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sporting CP
2.46
Total xG
3.25
Academico Viseu
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting CP | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +2.01 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −1.27 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Geny Catamo on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Sporting CP scores 2.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, Academico Viseu 1.75 away
- Table: Sporting CP sits in 3rd place with 2.5 goals per game in the league, Academico Viseu is 6th
Risks
- Form: Academico Viseu registered 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Sporting CP won 2
All probabilities
Result
Sporting CP73%
Draw18%
Academico Viseu9%
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw91%
Academico Viseu or draw27%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.46 : 0.78, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Sporting CP: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Sporting CP: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1 · Academico Viseu 5-4-1
Sporting CP
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 55 I. Ba
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 3 M. Brau Blanquez
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 33 A. Silva Filho
Substitutes
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 4 S. Andersen
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 28 J. Derry
- 18 M. Zekri
- 17 V. Fernández Estrada
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 12 J. Soriano Oropesa
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 47 L. Gohi
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 58 M. Santos Sampaio
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