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Estoril – Moreirense1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Estoril
1.52
Total xG
2.60
Moreirense
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estoril | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | −0.62 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Yanis Begraoui not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Shots on target: Estoril registered 5.2 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Moreirense 2.6 per game
- Possession: Estoril averaged 45% possession per game in their last 5 games, Moreirense 33.4% per game
Risks
- Table: Estoril earned 2 points from 8 games in the league this season, Moreirense 8 points from 8 games
- Form: Estoril recorded 0 wins in 8 games in the league this season, Moreirense 2 wins in 8 games
All probabilities
Result
Estoril46%
Draw29%
Moreirense26%
Double chance
Estoril or draw74%
Moreirense or draw54%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.52 : 1.08, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Moreirense: 3.1 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Moreirense: 42% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 12)
Lineups
Estoril 4-3-3 · Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 6 X. Egea
- 21 R. Jurišić
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 99 R. Guitane
- 9 A. Camblan
- 11 N. Omerović
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 79 L. Vonić
Substitutes
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 35 S. Amissah
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 16 M. Turk
- 19 T. Parente
- 8 M. da Silva Rocha
- 25 S. Andreou
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 44 M. Robin
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 25 A. Cunha Almeida
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 12 F. Barbosa
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