Match report →
Alverca – Arouca0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Alverca
1.53
Total xG
2.67
Arouca
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Alverca have 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Arouca 2 wins
- Home/Away: Arouca average 0.75 goals per game away in the league this season, Alverca 1.25 goals per game at home
Risks
- Table: Arouca are 5th in the league this season with 14 points from 8 matches, Alverca 8th with 11 points
- Defense: Arouca have conceded 0.88 goals per game in the league this season, Alverca 1.5 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Alverca45%
Draw29%
Arouca27%
Double chance
Alverca or draw73%
Arouca or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.53 : 1.14, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arouca: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Alverca: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Vivaldo Semedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Arouca: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sporting CP: 2 goals (81', 87')
Lineups
Alverca 3-4-3 · Arouca 4-2-3-1
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 6 D. Gui
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 8 T. Fukui
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitutes
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 24 E. Jemide
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 20 G. Rukavina
- 2 L. Shahar
- 5 B. Popović
- 14 H. Lee
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
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