Match report →
Rio Ave – Famalicão0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Rio Ave
1.05
Total xG
2.41
Famalicão
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rio Ave | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Famalicão averages 1.75 goals per game away in the league this season, Rio Ave concedes 2.75 at home
- Defense: Rio Ave conceded 2.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches, and 2.12 per game in the league this season
Risks
- xG: Famalicão generated 0.72 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.6 goals per game
- Attack: Rio Ave scores 1.5 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Rio Ave27%
Draw31%
Famalicão42%
Double chance
Rio Ave or draw58%
Famalicão or draw73%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.05 : 1.36, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rio Ave: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
Lineups
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Famalicão 4-2-3-1
Rio Ave
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 90 D. Santos Nascimento
- 54 G. Liavas
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 6 T. van de Looi
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 18 R. Beney
- 21 T. Szücs
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Substitutes
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 77 D. Špikić
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 2 J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
- 8 R. da Silva Pae
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 30 R. Galčík
- 60 C. Valença
- 70 A. Wenck
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 3 S. Garcia
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 30 V. Serafimović
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 33 P. Salas
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 5 L. Meyer
- 22 G. Cabral da Cruz
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →