Match report →
Gil Vicente – Porto0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gil Vicente
1.08
Total xG
2.60
Porto
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gil Vicente | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.72 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Héctor Hernández not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gil Martins not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 48% available) | ||
| William Gomes not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Porto rank 1st in the league with 24 points from 8 games, while Gil Vicente are 6th with 14 points
- Away: Porto score 2.75 goals per game away in the league this season, Gil Vicente concede 0.5 at home
- Head-to-head: Porto won 3 of the 4 meetings against Gil Vicente, with the last match ending 0:3
Risks
- Defense: Gil Vicente conceded 0.5 goals per game at home in 4 league games this season
- Form: Porto lost 2 of their last 5 games across all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Gil Vicente25%
Draw29%
Porto46%
Double chance
Gil Vicente or draw54%
Porto or draw75%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.08 : 1.52, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Borja Sainz: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Porto: 7 of 23 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1 · Porto 4-3-3
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 9 W. dos Santos França
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
Substitutes
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 1 A. Picornell
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 99 M. Kaba
- 42 S. Fofana
- 16 I. Hwang
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 6 C. Smalling
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
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