Match report →
Marítimo – Santa Clara0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Marítimo
0.96
Total xG
2.15
Santa Clara
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Marítimo | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −1.15 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.81 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.67 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Gonçalo Paciência not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 79% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Santa Clara is 4th with 18 points from 9 matches, Marítimo is 14th with 8 points
- Defense: Santa Clara concedes 0.5 goals per game away in the league, Marítimo 1.75 at home
- Form: Santa Clara won 3 of their last 5 matches, Marítimo went winless in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Defense: Marítimo allowed 1.87 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 2.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Marítimo28%
Draw33%
Santa Clara40%
Double chance
Marítimo or draw60%
Santa Clara or draw72%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.96 : 1.19, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santa Clara: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Santa Clara: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Marítimo: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 9 games)
- Santa Clara: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Marítimo: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Marítimo 3-4-3 · Santa Clara 4-3-3
Marítimo
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 22 G. Szalai
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 12 M. Bassouamina
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
Santa Clara
- 12 H. Júnior
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
Substitutes
- 21 I. Alani
- 3 N. Ogbeta
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 5 N. Lopes
- 18 V. Danilović
- 11 M. Diouri
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 15 T. Tavares
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 81 S. Fofana
- 76 T. de Castro Sousa
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