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Moreirense – Estrela Amadora2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Moreirense
1.36
Total xG
2.56
Estrela Amadora
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Moreirense | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Eddy Doué on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rafa Soares on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Moreirense won 2 of their last 5 matches, Estrela Amadora won 1 of their last 5 matches
- Table: Moreirense is 10th in the league with 11 points from 9 matches, Estrela Amadora 12th with 10 points
Risks
- Away: Estrela Amadora scores 2 goals per match away in the league this season, Moreirense concedes 2 per match at home
- Possession: Estrela Amadora averaged 57% possession in recent matches, Moreirense 36% per match
All probabilities
Result
Moreirense39%
Draw30%
Estrela Amadora31%
Double chance
Moreirense or draw69%
Estrela Amadora or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.36 : 1.20, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Moreirense: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Moreirense: 36% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Moreirense 4-2-3-1 · Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 79 L. Vonić
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Substitutes
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 25 A. Cunha Almeida
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 89 A. Fernandes Lopes Vieira
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 12 F. Barbosa
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 28 T. Moustier
- 39 E. Doué
- 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
- 72 H.Poniewas
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
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