Match report →
Benfica – Alverca1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Benfica
2.91
Total xG
3.59
Alverca
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Benfica | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.45x league average) | +2.32 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −1.33 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Rafa Silva on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Diogo Spencer on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Benfica is 2nd with 22 points from 9 games, while Alverca is 10th with 11 points from 9 games
- Form: Benfica won 4 of their last 5 matches and averages 2.89 goals per game in the league this season
- Home/Away: Benfica scores 2.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, Alverca concedes 1.75 per game away
Risks
- Away: Alverca has scored 2 goals per game away in the league this season across 4 games
- Form: Alverca won 3 of their last 5 matches in the league
All probabilities
Result
Benfica82%
Draw13%
Alverca5%
Double chance
Benfica or draw95%
Alverca or draw18%
No draw87%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
3:0
From xG 2.91 : 0.68, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
4:0
8%
2:1
8%
3:1
8%
4:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Gianluca Prestianni: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Vivaldo Semedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · Alverca 5-4-1
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 6 D. Gui
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
Substitutes
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 1 A. Trubin
- 16 M. Silva
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 88 T. Dias Freitas
- 3 A. Circati
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 3 J. Martinez Crisanto
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 23 A. Eusébio Paulo
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 18 Z. Kessary
- 24 E. Jemide
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