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Sporting Braga – Famalicão3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sporting Braga
1.50
Total xG
2.44
Famalicão
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting Braga | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Pau Víctor on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 42% available) |
Key factors
- Tactics: Sporting Braga average 59.2% possession and 16.2 shots per game in their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Sporting Braga are unbeaten in 4 meetings with Famalicão (1 win, 3 draws)
- xG: Famalicão generated 0.95 xG per game across 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.4 goals per game
Risks
- Away: Famalicão score 2.2 goals per game away in the league this season while conceding 0.8 per game
- Form: Sporting Braga have lost 4 of their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Sporting Braga49%
Draw29%
Famalicão22%
Double chance
Sporting Braga or draw78%
Famalicão or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.50 : 0.94, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Famalicão: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Rio Ave: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+5')
- Sporting Braga with Vítor Carvalho starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (20/8 games, last 30)
- Famalicão: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sporting Braga 4-2-3-1 · Famalicão 4-2-3-1
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 37 L. Barišić
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 21 R. Horta
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 6 T. van de Looi
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 18 R. Beney
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Substitutes
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 17 J. Milošević
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 10 Pau Victor
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 30 V. Serafimović
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 33 P. Salas
- 72 J. Gomes Correia
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