Match report →
Arouca – Nacional1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Arouca
1.60
Total xG
2.62
Nacional
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arouca | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.68 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Arouca scores 2 goals per game at home in the league, Nacional concedes 2 goals per game away in the league
- Table: Arouca is 5th with 17 points from 9 games in the league, Nacional is 15th with 7 points from 9 games
- Form: Arouca won 2 of their last 5 games, while Nacional suffered 4 losses in their last 5 games
Risks
- Shots: Nacional averaged 3.4 shots on target per game over the last 5 games, Arouca 3.6 shots on target per game
All probabilities
Result
Arouca49%
Draw28%
Nacional23%
Double chance
Arouca or draw77%
Nacional or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.02, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arouca: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Arouca: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sporting CP: 2 goals (81', 87')
Lineups
Arouca 4-2-3-1 · Nacional 4-3-3
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 8 T. Fukui
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 7 M. Jensen
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 15 C. Abidi
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 29 N. Kader
- 12 M. Song
Substitutes
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 2 L. Shahar
- 5 B. Popović
- 14 H. Lee
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 27 M. R. G. Baldé
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 5 J. Mendes Gomes
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 14 I. Mendes Fernandes
- 9 A. Obando
- 20 M. Djaló
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