Match report →
Porto – Estoril4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Porto
2.26
Total xG
3.08
Estoril
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +1.54 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.87 | |
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −0.62 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| André Silva on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yanis Begraoui not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.6 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- League: Porto won all 9 games in the league this season, Estoril is without a win after 9 games
- Home/Away: Porto scores 2.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, Estoril concedes 1.75 per game away
- Head-to-head: Porto won all 4 previous meetings against Estoril
Risks
- Form: Porto lost 2 of its last 5 games across all competitions
- Tactics: Porto averaged 49% possession per game in the last 5 games, Estoril 49.6%
All probabilities
Result
Porto69%
Draw20%
Estoril11%
Double chance
Porto or draw89%
Estoril or draw31%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.26 : 0.81, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (8 of 12 total)
- Porto: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Borja Sainz: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Porto: 7 of 23 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · Estoril 4-5-1
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
Estoril
- 16 M. Turk
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 25 S. Andreou
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 19 T. Parente
- 99 R. Guitane
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 6 X. Egea
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
Substitutes
- 42 S. Fofana
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. Prpić
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 9 A. Camblan
- 35 S. Amissah
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 8 M. da Silva Rocha
- 11 N. Omerović
- 44 M. Robin
- 21 R. Jurišić
- 43 F. Lowe
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