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Academico Viseu – Rio Ave2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Academico Viseu
1.63
Total xG
2.62
Rio Ave
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Academico Viseu | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.33x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Academico Viseu won all 5 of their last 5 matches, while Rio Ave won 1 of their last 5
- Table: Academico Viseu is 6th with 17 points from 9 matches, Rio Ave is 16th with 7 points
- Away form: Rio Ave scored 0.5 goals per match away from home in the league this season in 4 matches
Risks
- xG: Academico Viseu allowed 1.96 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.6 goals per match
- Home form: Academico Viseu conceded 1.5 goals per match at home in the league this season in 4 matches
All probabilities
Result
Academico Viseu51%
Draw28%
Rio Ave22%
Double chance
Academico Viseu or draw79%
Rio Ave or draw49%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.63 : 0.99, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rio Ave: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Academico Viseu: 3.4 cards per game (27 yellows, 0 reds in 8 games)
- Academico Viseu: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Academico Viseu 4-2-3-1 · Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 3 M. Brau Blanquez
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 33 A. Silva Filho
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 90 D. Santos Nascimento
- 54 G. Liavas
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Substitutes
- 17 V. Fernández Estrada
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 12 J. Soriano Oropesa
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 82 H. Gambor
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 47 L. Gohi
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 10 B. Aguilera Zamora
- 77 D. Špikić
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 13 J. Lomboto Lompombi
- 2 J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
- 27 T. Medina
- 8 R. da Silva Pae
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 30 R. Galčík
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
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