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Casa Pia – Sporting CP0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Casa Pia
0.79
Total xG
2.83
Sporting CP
2.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Casa Pia | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Geny Catamo on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Casa Pia concede 3.25 goals per game at home in the league, Sporting CP score 2.5 per game away
- Standings: Sporting CP are 3rd in the league with 18 points, Casa Pia are 16th with 7 points
- Head-to-head: Sporting CP won all 4 meetings against Casa Pia, the last one 3-0
Risks
- Form: Sporting CP lost 2 of their last 5 games in all competitions, Casa Pia won 2
- Defense: Sporting CP conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 games, compared to 1.22 in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Casa Pia12%
Draw22%
Sporting CP65%
Double chance
Casa Pia or draw35%
Sporting CP or draw88%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
0:2
From xG 0.79 : 2.04, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
8%
1:3
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sporting CP: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Casa Pia: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1 · Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Casa Pia
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 80 L. Ofori
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
Sporting CP
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 4 S. Andersen
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
Substitutes
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 20 A. Jatta
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 29 J. Livolant
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 95 I. Mandić
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 59 A. Dafe
- 17 E. Maurin
- 44 F. da Silva
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 9 R. Nel
- 55 I. Ba
- 28 J. Derry
- 18 M. Zekri
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