Match report →
Gil Vicente – Vitória Guimarães0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gil Vicente
1.32
Total xG
2.50
Vitória Guimarães
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gil Vicente | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Héctor Hernández not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gil Martins on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 55% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Gil Vicente are 8th in the league with 14 points from 9 games, Vitória Guimarães 13th with 8 points
- Home/Away: Gil Vicente concede 0.6 goals per game at home in the league, Vitória Guimarães 2 per game away
Risks
- Head-to-head: Vitória Guimarães won 3 of the 4 meetings, with 1 draw and 0 wins for Gil Vicente
- Shots on target: Vitória Guimarães average 5.6 shots on target per game in recent matches, Gil Vicente 3 per game
All probabilities
Result
Gil Vicente38%
Draw30%
Vitória Guimarães32%
Double chance
Gil Vicente or draw68%
Vitória Guimarães or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.18, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória Guimarães: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Vitória Guimarães: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: 82% of all goals in the second half (9 of 11, last 12 games)
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1 · Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 2 J. Silva
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 9 W. dos Santos França
Vitória Guimarães
- 98 L. Furtado dos Santos
- 23 T. Strata
- 21 T. Borevković
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 13 João Mendes
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 7 O. Camara
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Substitutes
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 17 S. Bermejo Lillo
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 26 W. Moreira da Costa
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 99 M. Kaba
- 44 L. Doucet
- 19 V. Andersson
- 48 O. Zych
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 24 A. Ndoye
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 40 M. Kebdani
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