Match report →
Rio Ave – Sporting Braga0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Rio Ave
0.87
Total xG
2.63
Sporting Braga
1.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rio Ave | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defense: Rio Ave has conceded 3 goals per game in 5 home matches in the league this season
- Table: Sporting Braga is 8th with 14 points from 10 matches, Rio Ave is 17th with 7 points from 10 matches
- Shots: Sporting Braga averaged 20.4 shots and 6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches
Risks
- Rest days: Sporting Braga with 3 days since their last match
- Away: Sporting Braga scored 1 goal per game and conceded 1.2 in 5 away league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Rio Ave17%
Draw26%
Sporting Braga57%
Double chance
Rio Ave or draw43%
Sporting Braga or draw83%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
0:1
From xG 0.87 : 1.76, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rio Ave: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Sporting Braga 3-4-3
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 13 J. Lomboto Lompombi
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 54 G. Liavas
- 90 D. Santos Nascimento
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 37 L. Barišić
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 10 Pau Victor
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 21 R. Horta
Substitutes
- 10 B. Aguilera Zamora
- 77 D. Špikić
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 2 J. Teixeira Lopes Reis Gonçalves
- 8 R. da Silva Pae
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 30 R. Galčík
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 21 R. Šiler
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
- 3 S. Garcia
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 17 J. Milošević
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 98 F. da Costa
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