Match report →
Estrela Amadora – Benfica2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Estrela Amadora
0.82
Total xG
3.44
Benfica
2.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estrela Amadora | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +1.03 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Eddy Doué not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Andreas Schjelderup on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Benfica won all 5 of their last 5 matches, while Estrela Amadora went winless in their last 5
- Home/Away: Benfica score 3.4 goals per game away in the league this season, Estrela Amadora concede 1.8 at home
- Head-to-head: Benfica have won all 4 previous meetings against Estrela Amadora
Risks
- xG: Estrela Amadora averaged 1.67 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per game
- Rest days: Benfica with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Estrela Amadora9%
Draw17%
Benfica75%
Double chance
Estrela Amadora or draw25%
Benfica or draw91%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
0:2
From xG 0.82 : 2.62, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
0:3
10%
1:2
9%
1:3
8%
1:1
8%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Gianluca Prestianni: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Benfica: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Estrela Amadora: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 4 B. Schappo
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 5 S. Leković
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 28 T. Moustier
- 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 72 H.Poniewas
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 1 A. Trubin
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 88 T. Dias Freitas
- 3 A. Circati
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →