Match report →
Sporting CP – Moreirense1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sporting CP
2.58
Total xG
3.24
Moreirense
0.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting CP | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.6x league average) | +1.84 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −1.02 | |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.4 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.04 | |
| Geny Catamo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Tiago Andrade not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Sporting CP score 2.2 goals per game at home in the league, Moreirense concede 1.6 per game away
- Head-to-head: Sporting CP have won 3 of 4 previous meetings against Moreirense
- Tactics: Sporting CP averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Moreirense 3.6 per game
Risks
- Defense: Sporting CP concede 1.4 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Form: Moreirense won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game in that period
All probabilities
Result
Sporting CP78%
Draw16%
Moreirense6%
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw94%
Moreirense or draw22%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.58 : 0.66, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
11%
2:1
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Moreirense: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 13)
- Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Sporting CP 4-3-3 · Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Sporting CP
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 4 S. Andersen
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
- 19 N. Irankunda
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 79 L. Vonić
Substitutes
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 55 I. Ba
- 28 J. Derry
- 18 M. Zekri
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 25 A. Cunha Almeida
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 87 M. Andrade Silva
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 89 A. Fernandes Lopes Vieira
- 12 F. Barbosa
- 35 D. Brito
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