Match report →
Santa Clara – Gil Vicente1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Santa Clara
1.18
Total xG
2.28
Gil Vicente
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santa Clara | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Gonçalo Paciência on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tiago Ribeiro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Santa Clara conceded 0.6 goals per game in the league this season, Gil Vicente 0.7 per game
- Form: Santa Clara conceded 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Gil Vicente 0.6 goals per game
Risks
- Table: Santa Clara earned 21 points in 10 league matches this season, Gil Vicente 15 points
- Head-to-head: Santa Clara won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, Gil Vicente 1
All probabilities
Result
Santa Clara36%
Draw32%
Gil Vicente32%
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw68%
Gil Vicente or draw64%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.10, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
10%
2:1
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santa Clara: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Santa Clara: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Santa Clara 4-3-3 · Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1
Santa Clara
- 12 H. Júnior
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 85 A. Gonçalves Infante
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 9 W. dos Santos França
Substitutes
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 5 G. Romão
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 25 F. Medeiros Silva
- 81 S. Fofana
- 76 T. de Castro Sousa
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 8 M. Bamba
- 1 A. Picornell
- 2 J. Silva
- 26 W. Moreira da Costa
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 99 M. Kaba
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