Match report →
Famalicão – Arouca1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Famalicão
1.25
Total xG
2.26
Arouca
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Famalicão | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.37x league average) | −1.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Rodrigo Pinheiro not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Famalicão is unbeaten in 4 matches against Arouca with 2 wins and 2 draws
- Attack: Famalicão scored 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Arouca 1.2 per game
Risks
- Table: Arouca is 5th in the league after 10 matches with 20 points, Famalicão 11th with 10 points
- Home/Away: Famalicão scored 0.75 goals per game and conceded 1.75 per game in 4 home league matches
All probabilities
Result
Famalicão40%
Draw32%
Arouca28%
Double chance
Famalicão or draw72%
Arouca or draw60%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.25 : 1.01, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Famalicão: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Rio Ave: 3 goals (80', 85', 90+5')
- Famalicão: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- Arouca: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Famalicão 4-2-3-1 · Arouca 4-2-3-1
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 6 T. van de Looi
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 18 R. Beney
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitutes
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 30 V. Serafimović
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 33 P. Salas
- 22 G. Cabral da Cruz
- 72 J. Gomes Correia
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 20 G. Rukavina
- 2 L. Shahar
- 5 B. Popović
- 14 H. Lee
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 27 M. R. G. Baldé
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →